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Impavid Bulletin

expert-views

“We are bottom up investors. We are driven more by where we see the best opportunity. We run concentrated portfolios of about 20-25 names and it is different from what you see in terms of the broader index and our ideas are completely driven by where we see the opportunity.”

“Now one has to look at new stocks but there is definitely going to be some period of volatility and with interest rates the way they are looking, one need to look at stocks which are going to benefit from the commodity correction and where the order books are good and where we have a visibility for the next two-three years of earnings.”

“It is more likely that manufacturing, defence and elements like that will do better in the coming weeks and months rather than the financials where there is a larger impact both of local interest rates going up, currency changes and also international interest rates being spiked because of inflation or whatever else that causes foreign central banks to increase rates. We should be a little wary of the banking system for the next six months.”

“While I expect the market to gradually fall down over the next couple of days, the fall may not be too large considering the last two or three days’ performance. So from that respect, I would expect the market to trend downwards and this appears to be a bear trap in terms of so many stocks going up.”

"We at Aurum Capital were one of the first ones to invest in the capital goods sector last year. After a long downcycle, we started seeing green shoots during our scuttlebutt analysis last year. Valuations were really very supportive. We have the highest number of stocks under our recommendation from the capital goods/manufacturing sector. Many companies have shown excellent results despite input cost pressures."

NARCL is a new organisation. The CEOs of both NARCL and IDRCL took over as recently as June and July. They were still hiring people as recently as last month. The initial list was of legacy cases where banks had not succeeded. So there will be a difference between the value banks expect and what NARCL offers because they have a responsibility to shareholders and the government.

“The Jackson Hole event over the weekend, clearly was the party pooper from the bond market standpoint, given the fact that US yields are trending above 3.1%, the US two-year yield is almost at 3.4%. So the inversion has resurfaced. The Fed fund futures now are pricing in a 70% plus probability of a 75 basis rate hike next month.”

“We like the auto pack. We are pretty bullish on Mahindra and Ashok Leyland. . In consumption, Crompton Consumer is definitely good and there are many more names but because of our coverage, we are restricted to a few. The third space is manufacturing which is shaping up well. That is the space where one should continue to focus the portfolio.”

“I think today’s opening is a reflection of what has happened in Jackson Hole. How it will pan out in the future will depend on the way guidance will come in as we go about the market. Let us hope that it remains around these levels. Maybe it will not depreciate too much but I cannot say that it will not.”