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Impavid Bulletin

expert-views

“If one is a speculator, then one is very likely to get whipsawed playing the momentum. So, the reasonable strategy in this setup is contra. Whenever the market becomes complacent, pile a trade opposite of the market’s direction. That is the speculator's view. If you are an asset allocator, it is time to stay underweight on equity for some time.”

“Rerating as well as derating goes along with the growth cycle. When the growth is good, we get that double benefit of growth being good as well as PE or price to book getting rerated upwards. Similarly, where growth is cooling off or is negative, we see the stocks go through derating.”

“I would think that Reliance could languish for some more time and I do not think any demerger is going to happen fast. The new generation is just taking over some operating businesses. I do not think Mr Ambani will risk demerging the companies at this stage or if ever.”

"Historically, midcaps tend to perform well in the month of September as per seasonality analysis. So, we believe this theme would continue to be in play for the coming month. P&F ratio analysis shows a thought-provoking finding i.e. post an anchor column (bullish) it staged a bullish turtle breakout – which implies outperformance of midcaps against Nifty."

“In my view, India is better placed as an economy. Now whether we will be better placed in a selloff or not is very tough to say, given the fact that we have outperformed so much. Most of the other markets are down 12 to 20% this year whereas on Friday. ”

"My assessment of the current situation is that if there is a recession, the impact of a lurking US economic slowdown will possibly be seen for a short period here as well, only to be followed by a boom in Indian IT, as the value proposition of India for IT talent at scale is intact."

"In India, there are opportunities across the market capitalisation curves. A lot of sectors, new themes, new segments are emerging. As we move from $1,800-2,000 per capita income to $3,000 per capita, a lot of new themes will come in. In the last five years, general insurance, chemicals, diagnostics, exchange companies have come out in the listed space. A lot of these were not listed five, six years back."

"We believe anything and everything green is a theme of the future and is here to stay. Further, looking at the increasing acceptance and sales trend of EVs in India, looking at the investments being made in the EV space including EV ecosystem there is no denial of the fact that a paradigm shift is around the corner. But that does not mean for investors it is an opportunity to invest."

"Golden crossover (50-day EMA crossing over 200-day EMA) implies a major shift in momentum in favour of the bulls. However, this is not a short-term indicator but a structural improvement. In the last decade, in eight out of 10 such instances, the Nifty has generated an average of 11% return in the subsequent three to four months post cross over. "