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Impavid Bulletin

expert-views

“The Indian market is obnoxiously overvalued relative to the world. Indian market valuations are more than 120% premium to emerging market index. It is tough for this to sustain. Whatever story you build out, caution has to be exercised and people need to keep some cash so that one is ready to buy in a sudden selloff.”

“Valuations seem to have trumped even the core business processes. At the end of the day, these companies should be increasingly seen from the angle of what value they are adding to society at large; whether these companies are going to be sustainable; whether we are going to see many of these names 10 years down the line.”

“Our basic premise is that the next leg of industrial capex will be not just capacity expansion but improvement in efficiency. Because of a lot of competition, all these companies are looking for automation and looking for ways of bringing more productivity. For that, all these companies like Honeywell, ABB and Siemens will play a very major role in Industry 4.0 .”

“If you see the results ACC, Ambujam delivered in the previous few quarters as well as the overall capacity accretion and earnings growth, the outlook is not so great. Most of the stocks have gone up 30% odd, Ambuja, ACC are trading at very random valuations. So from a minority investor standpoint, they do not offer much value at this stage.”

“We are pretty much in sync with the view of India being one of the key growth drivers of the world. But we need to think about market expectations and the problem is that valuations to some extent at times are suggestive that expectations have got a little bit more impatient and some reality check could play out in the near term.”

"Our first international investor faced a hard choice of where to invest globally. In May last year, they could’ve chosen from around ten global equity markets such as the US, the UK, Germany, Japan, or China. Fourteen months later, India is the only major equity market in that list to have returned a profit - even considering the depreciation of the rupee – while the other markets have lost between 5% and 35% in dollar terms."

“In the next one or two quarters, positive news flow on the pharma side, especially from the US, will start. Channel checks suggest that the pressure on pricing is reducing a lot. Most of the unviable smaller players are out of business. The market has consolidated into a few companies and people are identifying molecules which can have competitive edge,” says Daljeet Singh Kohli.

“We are holding Apollo tyres in slightly bigger quantities and Ceat in somewhat smaller quantities. I am more bullish on Apollo because of the global nature of their business. The fact that their European operations have hedged energy costs for nearly one year and so to that extent, profitability will not get impacted there.”

“Overall, there are five pockets where earnings growth will be stronger than the rest of the market and I am talking about where we get a sense that earnings growth will be very strong over the next two to three years. This includes, auto, manufacturing & capital goods, consumer discretionary, banks and IT.”