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Impavid Bulletin

expert-views

"Equity investing potentially gives people the opportunity to be part of India's story, to diversify into other industries and effectively become “owners” of an elite group of companies that have managed to become outliers in their field. If it was me, I would look to deploy any excess money that I can afford to lose towards fund managers who have a long-term proven track record and let them do the work to beat the market."

Insurance coverage in India is very low on every index compared to China, and Malaysia. In India, traditionally, insurance was always linked with some kind of endowment policy where you put some money over a period of time.

India has handled its macro situation quite credibly over the last few quarters in an era when the global disruption due to inflation, geopolitical conflicts, supply disruption, and interest rate rises have impacted economies across the globe.This is evident from its currency, inflation rate, and interest rates which have been resilient compared to other competing economies or even some developed economies.

"NFOs do not have an established expense ratio, an established portfolio constituent, an established track record. I do not know the behaviour of the fund manager in that specific scheme. So what is the merit of going for NFOs, I cannot fathom. I would not be an investor in NFOs unless it stands out and there is no other fund which can actually be in the same category or at least a fund which can compete."

“There are certain pockets where India stands out compared to global peers. We are clearly playing out something we are calling the three Cs theme – the credit growth, consumption and capex theme. Clearly the India systematic loan growth or credit growth has picked up. In August, RBI data suggested 15.5% credit growth and that is the highest in the last nine years.”

“In the case of chemical companies, in certain instances, we are seeing that the gross block build up that many of these companies are seeing that over the next three to five years is going to be so much that it will add nearly 2x to their current asset base.”

"Nifty Bank has outperformed Nifty with a healthy margin recently. YTD, Nifty Bank has risen 15% against 1% rise in Nifty. The technical setup of Nifty Bank is much stronger than Nifty. Indices like IT and Pharma have been dragging Nifty’s performance while participation of PSU banks have helped Nifty Bank to become one of the best performing sectors."

Fed rate hike only 60% of the time leads to a recession, normally from the start of a Fed rate hike12 months, 24 months the markets tend to do well, in fact the market peaks around the 24th month and on average in the 30th month is when the recession strikes. So by that logic on average there could be expectation of a 2024 recession not for next year which is good news.

The Indian stock market is in a strong bull run and every bull run has sharp profit booking during its journey which we are witnessing currently. The undertone remains bearish in the short term as long as we stay below the level of 18,000.