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Impavid Bulletin

expert-views

“We believe that the FMCG space provides a greater margin for safety and one could make 12-15% from current level also and that is under our consumption space. Under consumption, we also like the QSR space. It is a very good category which has delivered superior returns in the last couple of years and we are betting on Westlife Development under the QSR.”

“There is definitely an arbitrage opportunity in IDFC and IDFC First and if you want to get into IDFC First Bank, buying shares of IDFC may give 4-5% price advantage because I also feel that the ratio will be slightly in favour of IDFC shareholders rather than IDFC First. It is a marginal benefit and both these companies are going to be under one entity, one listing and you could buy either of them.”

“The underlying fundamentals of the housing industry are very strong and we strongly believe that housing volume in the big urban sectors will at least triple in the course of this decade and grow at a similar pace in the next decade. So in the next 10 to 15 years, we will see very strong growth in housing.”

“Near term because China is so cheap and India goes through this kind of a course correction where we are a current account deficit country, it may work to China’s advantage and China may outperform India. For the India funds, we are more defensive from the next 6-9 months’ perspective. Longer term, it is a strong domestic story. ”

“One should get a bit cautious on largecap IT. The better way to play software would be to buy into the midcap IT stocks which are focussing on differentiated verticals or have a slightly innovative business model. Those will be able to survive and grow even in this kind of a challenging environment.”

“There is no reason to be worried. The business is good but there is a kind of uncertainty now that we did not have a year ago and that is the reason for being cautiously optimistic. There is a certain level of caution but we just feel that it is in this context, in this environment. ”

"India has been a beneficiary of excess global liquidity, higher metal and commodity prices, and strong industrial demand in the post-Covid recovery phase, visible through the above trend growth in exports during the past 2-3 years. As global economies attempt to engineer a slowdown to control inflation, India's external sector growth can come under pressure even as domestic demand maintains strength."

“On the IIP side, a lot of other data that we are seeing including high frequency indicators for August and September are actually very positive. So while this is a disappointing number, it is best that we look through it and we look at other data points such as the GST E-Way bill data for August and September which has been extremely positive.”

“We raised rates by 50 bps twice or three times as has been the US. Even now they are trying to really fight inflation by raising interest rates. I do not know when this settles as it is just not peaking out in the US. I do not know what happens in India. At some point, you might even see the RBI raising interest far too aggressively than how they have raised so far and that is my fear that liquidity is likely to dry up in the next 12 months globally as well as in India.”