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Impavid Bulletin

expert-views

“I like IT largecaps in the long term because they are cash generating companies, they have no debt, they keep on giving dividends and doing buybacks and at some stage, they will become a buy – maybe six months or nine months down the line, when there is a lot of negativity around. That is the time we will have to buy them.”

"Gold should always find at least ~10-15% weight in a portfolio given its negative correlation with equities. This is particularly true in India because gold is also an elegant way to play currency. Gold USD may have proven to be a poor investment over the last few years, but in India, it allows you to play currency depreciation in a very accessible way."

"Earlier, suppose the US treasury spent too much and inflation and growth rose. By increasing interest rates, you could bring them back to normal. But when there’s a war, supply shocks and climate impacts, you face raised prices, lowered growth — and no magic bullet. We’re looking at a sharp turning point in the global economy now."

“The numbers will warrant the upgrade as the guidance has increased and margins for the second quarter came as a bit of surprise. Even if the company is maintaining margin guidance, there is a high probability that going forward in the second half as this wage hike will stabilise and pricing power coming back to this company margin would give positive surprise.”

“I would like to look at the year-on-year number at 31.2%. Normally we do not look at the year-on-year number for an IT company but that 31.2% is substantially large and tells us that the revenue numbers for Infosys henceforth will be steadily growing. The recent underperformance that we have seen in Infosys relative to its peers will get made up”

"As the interest rate cycle is on an upswing, we will see valuations getting depressed across the board because it will be incrementally harder to raise money and do M&A by having leverage. All those factors which would have caused earnings growth in the longer run are going to be muted."

“In the near term, there is a real risk that over the next two-three months or over next six months, there is a threat to the financial stability of the system globally and that is where policy makers will come in and capitulate. We may see some bit of a yield curve control coming through. ”

"If the markets are not used to increase in interest rates, it is not my fault! That is why I say that the markets never price in anything. The span of their memory is that of a small pussy cat’s. I will be betting that Fed might go for two 75 bps hikes. The next one is coming up possibly in November and the other one possibly after Christmas. ”