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Impavid Bulletin

expert-views

“In areas like retail, consumer products and other areas, we continue to see a decent hiring demand coming through. Maybe ecommerce is seeing a little bit of a slump in terms of hiring. But there are jobs in the other consumer-led businesses. It is here that the India story comes in. India is weathering the storm through a change in consumer behaviour on the ground.”

In terms of demand side, there is a strong order book for OEM PV but semiconductor issue is restricting the production. But still demand remains reasonably strong on that side.

​The gold duty in India has been hiked in the year 2022 so we have not seen the real returns coming out of real bull running gold right now and that is what has started from last two months and going forward in 2023 we are going to see a major bull run in gold from here.

“Any investors who want to make a healthy allocation to IT, possibly this is the right time to add to the high quality IT stocks over the next couple of quarters and stay put for the next two to three years. This is the same strategy which we applied into the banking and financial services two years ago when we expected credit growth to pick up.”

" If you look at historical patterns of the last 50 years, once the trend changes, it typically lasts for two, three years at least. So those investors who are used to investing in highly valued growth stocks will keep on investing in those stocks and they will keep on underperforming. I think that is the challenge which investors will face."

“Coming to the complex generics opportunity, Cipla and Lupin are most exposed. We like Cipla more than Lupin because at least in the near term, there are multiple assets waiting to play out. For Cipla this year, we are hoping to see generic Advair, generic Abraxane which is most likely in the price but beyond that, there will be a generic Qvar, there will be a generic Teriparatide and potentially a generic Flovent as well.”

“During the last decade, they grew at 35% while all the other banks ICICI, Axis grew at 15%. The differential was almost 20-25%. Now even the Axis and ICICI of the world are growing at 20% and Bajaj Finance is growing at 25%. So I will not want to pay significantly higher multiples for this company versus the others.”

“For our IT services companies, the fundamentals have not been as bad as what the stock performance appears to show. So yes, it has had but the point is that those are what we call tech companies in the US. Microsoft, Google etc are completely different from our services companies.”

“The IT stocks reacted positively marginally although I think it is more to do with the sentiments across the entire space where FIIs are clearly staying away from these names and we will have to wait and watch when and how the domestics can start buying into these names. But clearly the space looks attractive. ”