loader

Impavid Bulletin

expert-views

“We do not expect our risk profile of the portfolio to change pre Covid and post Covid. Also pre Covid, our average annual credit cost used to be in the range of 1 to 1.1% which went up during the Covid period, This year it is seeing a little bit of normalcy and is around 1.5%. We aim to get our credit cost back to that 1.1 to 1.2% level.”

​These are very high quality companies and for sure the valuations have corrected so they look a little tempting but I would be a little careful in terms of which I pick because there may be a little bit of overvaluation still there in the system.

“We look at the sectors which are neglected, beaten down and are in the most neglected or untouchable zone, from money managers’ perspective. These are the areas where you will generate alpha in 2023 and maybe in this decade also. Metals will be one of the themes of 2023. The other two will be PSU and power.”

I think it is a little early but we have had many false starts before hoping that the Fed is done and every time some slightly favourable data comes the market rallies. Then when the next data points comes and the Fed governors comes and talk and then it sells off.

​So as long as these companies realise that, as long as they do not think that they will again get investments at very high valuations I think they should do better. Secondly, stating that we will make profits and actually making profits are two different things.

“There are many businesses which have taken the path of sustainable long-term growth. Munger said something very nice; he said if there is going to be a test once every few decades, what matters is passing the test, longevity being the greater test of success and excellence. Once that is adopted, then you have growth as a tool to last that long rather than growth for the sake of it.”

"Bajaj Finance has cracked below a multi-year upsloping support trendline on relatively higher volumes with a marubuzo candle which amplifies the bearish tone on the weekly timeframe. The relative strength has deteriorated extensively, surpassing below the key support, RSI trends below the median with a negative slope and so does the MACD trailing below the zero line with a negative crossover. "

India is relatively better placed with expected nominal GDP growth of 10-15% range for next 8-10 years. India has the ‘D3’ power which none of the other EM has: Democracy, Demography and Digitisation, and this is what will attract a lot of global liquidity.

"In most of the advanced economies, inflation is between 2.5 to 4 times the historical average; in contrast in India, the latest inflation print also was at 5.8% and that is less than the historical average of 7%. So there is relatively lower inflation in the environment that we are in, together with 7% growth. In a global economy, which is going to be in recession, India, the fifth largest economy growing at 7%, cannot be better news for India and for the world."