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Impavid Bulletin

expert-views

"We are sitting on a little bit of cash, not significant cash and we have added a few industrials in the last few months because I think that industrials will perform very well going forward as we are seeing the capex cycle turn. While talking to companies, we realise that capex has started across all sectors and to take the benefit of that, we are invested in some of the industrial stocks besides consumption which continues to remain the main theme."

“While Fixed Income is underrated because it is not that fancy looking in terms of returns, depending on the risk appetite one has and more importantly, the kind of longevity, one can plan for investments as low as 30 days or 300 days or 3,000 days. That is the beauty of fixed income, specifically in today’s market scenario, from where we were 6-8-12 months back as during this period, interest rates have gone up.”

“Markets are volatile. The recession fears and slowdown fears are playing havoc with crude oil prices. Yes, there is a problem in Europe but the recent crash in oil prices is on the back of what is happening in China, multiple lockdowns in large provinces, genuine economic slowdown and challenges as far as the future is concerned. China is probably the largest consumer. So something happening in China significantly reduces oil demand and impacts oil prices.”

“I do not think the market is building in the effects of operating and financial leverage which will come in maybe two-three years down the line. That is where the profit cycle really picks up as we have seen in the past also. The parameter for me will be how the ROE trajectory goes and we are currently at 15%. As it moves along to the 20% range, the peak will start forming.”

"is this whole overhang of fear in terms of the recession possibility in the US. All the spending today is going into IT, whether it is in terms of digitalisation, cloud migration or Blockchain. These are strategic spends and are not discretionary in nature. I really do not see how IT spends will come off. Some of the so-called new age dotcom businesses will find funding difficult but for a lot of businesses, this spend is here to stay. "

“We are generally positive on all these defence companies which can give a steady 15-20% type of compounding returns over the next three to five years or so and invest. So certainly at least those who have a bent of playing defensive in the market could look at buying into these companies.”

“Initially we are completely defying all global trends but let us see how long that lasts because it is very tough. The kind of moves Indian markets are giving are in complete contrast to emerging markets as well as world markets. The probability of that historically would not be more than 5%. Whether this 5% carries on is what we need to see.”

"Since the beginning of the current fiscal, FY23E earnings estimates for Nifty50 (excluding financials) have seen a mid-single digit cut while the benchmark is up another 5% to boot. This is on top of a fairly broad-based multiple expansion in these names over the past 6-7 years. India’s investable landscape is distinctly wider than of other emerging markets and there are compelling opportunities regardless."

We are very pleased with the fact that the FDI rules have changed, and that we now have the option. We're looking to spend greater time understanding the market and opportunity. The team has confidence in their ability to double the VNB (value of new business) from 2019 levels by the end of the next financial year.