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Impavid Bulletin

expert-views

""The narrative on inflation – interest rates dynamics & geopolitical tensions will ensure that markets will be volatile & keep investors on the edge. I am an ardent Warren Buffet fan. The word durable competitive advantage has stayed with me forever. I study & practise behavioural finance extensively which helps me to tide over the difficult phases in markets.."

“The operating cost of most banks, including smaller ones, are rising 25-30% or 25-28%. Fresh slippages have been rising for large banks and will be the same for smaller banks as well. Business growth for the banking sector is a challenge. Credit growth has gone up to 13-14% largely because of rising commodity prices.”

“ We cannot rule out some 5-8-10% corrections over the next couple of months but somewhere, close to the end of September-October, we should see better inflation numbers coming in primarily because of base effect. The narrative also will start changing. We are more likely to see a much stronger market by Diwali time.”

“There are always raw materials and other components which have been procured yearly and those are going to run through the next couple of months. One expects that in Q3 and Q4, the margins could be better than what we delivered in Q1 or what we will deliver in Q2.”

“My plan is for my children to own my gold some day. I hope I do not ever have to sell my gold but if gold turns into a bubble, of course I will have to sell it someday. But India knows more about gold and silver than any country in the world. I own both and do not plan to sell either unless they turn into a bubble.”

“The stocks to own for next three years include SBI among the PSU banks. This quarter was soft, but going forward, it should be better off. Among midcap IT companies, the L&T twins could be second preference. The third stock to own would be from mid-sized cement players. In that space, Birla Corp is in top form.”

“The workplace now is way more flexible than what it was prior to the pandemic and that offers a lot of flexibility for women and people with disabilities to be able to do the job without having to go through the hassles of making themselves appear at the workplace. Organisations becoming flexible post pandemic has definitely been a boost for inclusivity and diversity in the workforce.”

“Crude oil price is always a big joker in the pack which one needs to watch out for because India is and will continue to be a price taker and not a price maker. But I do not really see inflation doing a Laal Singh Chaddha or a Forrest Gump and keep on running. Therefore, the central banker need not really behave like F1 racing champ Schumacher.”