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Impavid Bulletin

expert-views

The credit cycle in banks is currently strong, but it is expected to moderate over time. Banks with strong liability franchises are predicted to remain profitable. There are also opportunities for shifts between banks, with large banks like HDFC and Kotak having not performed as well as other banks in recent times. However, it is more important to be selective with investments rather than making overall sectoral calls. The pharma sector is still early in its momentum, with the API and CRAM space having strong potential for returns over the next few years.

I do not think anybody can predict margins going forward in any industry. It is just not possible. There are so many variables which are there and the world today is not a very predictable place.

Most of India's IT companies are geared towards the struggling banking sector, therefore services companies with a portfolio of banks and NBFCs will face problems with slowing demand over the next few quarters, according to Anand Tandon. He stresses that some smaller companies may beat the general downtrend by developing products that will see growth. Valuation is fluctuating across the retail side of the market, and it is a sector that requires further maturity before arguing that it is a reasonably stable business to be valued.

​So, there is not a great deal of upside from credit costs from here. So, earning growth will be challenged and when you are coming off such a high earnings growth in FY23, FY24 earnings growth will look a little anaemic.

​The fact that there was a lot of post Covid, front ending in many categories, which is yet to really unwind and therefore discretionary demand, except for autos continues to be challenging and then the commentary does not seem to change from whatever we have heard so far.

​So, it is very-very important for not just Mondelez, but everybody must state that, look, if 20 grams and seven-and-a-half grams carry 20 grams, then is that the right amount that goes into a spoonful of milk every day and therefore what is the total amount that is required by a child in his diet for the day, so it is not harmful by itself if you have only Bournvita and nothing else.

​So the fresh buying is something which is still lacking in the market. So, we believe that a meaningful dip from here would make things attractive again for long positions. So, there are two ways to deal with this -- either we wait for a correction until 17,500, 17,400 max which is where fresh money can come in or alternatively we cross 17,800 and once that happens gates will open for 18,000, 18,200 in the coming few days.

“At lower price points, products are getting much more attention and much more attraction. We are seeing consumers coming back to the lower price point product but there is still a little bit of concern and stress on the higher price point products. That is where consumers are not spending on the higher price point product and that is very logical.”

“Hopefully, at some point in time during the year, we will start seeing an end of the rate hiking cycle of the last year or so. Hopefully, with growth expectations moderating, we will get into a situation where earnings growth will start meeting expectations and the extraordinary amount of capital expenditure that the government is putting into the ground will start to have a knock-on effect on aggregate demand.”